What the 2026 Election Changes for Companies Selling Into School Choice Programs

For a company paid through school choice programs, the November 3 results matter in four states and in one federal decision. Texas, Arizona, Iowa, and Georgia are where the people who write the 2027 budget or run the program changed, or still could. The federal scholarship tax credit starts January 1 as written, and what moves with these results is which governors file their state’s list of scholarship granting organizations by February 15.

Everywhere else, I expect 2027 to look a lot like 2026. The results do not change a 2026-27 award. The changes come through 2027 sessions and budgets, and most of them take effect with the 2027-28 school year.

These entries cover state elections and state policy, and only where the results could change a program a provider is paid through. They run in the order I would look at them.

The 2027 Texas budget sets the program’s size.

Texas is where the election changes the planning picture most. The $1 billion cap on the Education Freedom Accounts runs out September 1, 2027, and the statute sets no replacement. The 2027 legislature, in session January 12 to May 31, writes the amount for the next two school years into the budget, and until it does there is no amount for that biennium.

That budget now runs through new hands. Gina Hinojosa (D) won the governor’s race after calling the program "the biggest voucher scam in the whole country." Democrats took the House, Republicans kept the Senate 19 to 12, and Vikki Goodwin (D), who presides over the Senate, won the lieutenant governor’s race. The governor, the House, and the Senate all have to agree on a number.

The 2026-27 awards are $10,474 for a private school student, up to $30,000 for a student with an IEP, and $2,000 for a student in home education, paid in one installment. For a company selling to homeschool families, $2,000 is what the program gives each one to spend, and it lands in a single deposit, so the timing of the 2027-28 deposit matters as much as the amount.

I’d plan 2027-28 Texas revenue at two levels, the current program and a smaller one, and hold fixed Texas commitments until the budget passes at the end of May. Nathan Johnson (D) won the attorney general’s race, and a federal case over which schools may take part, Bayaan Academy v. Hancock, has a motion to dismiss pending and a trial date of July 12, 2027.

Arizona’s purchase rules are likely to tighten either way.

The Arizona Department of Education runs the Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, so the superintendent’s race decides who writes the purchase and approval rules every Arizona provider works under. That race is still open, with Teresa Leyba Ruiz (D) ahead of Kimberly Yee (R), 53 to 47 percent, in an office a Republican held.

Both candidates campaigned on tighter purchase approval. Leyba Ruiz said in a September debate that the program is "written to be exploited." Yee backs real-time controls under which a card for an ineligible item "won’t swipe." Phoenix New Times reported that both would end automatic approval of expenses under $2,000.

Governor Katie Hobbs (D), re-elected, says she will keep "cracking down on waste, fraud, and abuse in the ESA entitlement program." AP has not called either chamber of the legislature, and Democrats led in both on the morning of November 5, according to KTAR. The award is set by the school funding formula, so the amount holds steady while the rules change.

I expect Arizona’s purchase rules to tighten in 2027 whoever wins the superintendent’s race. Smaller purchases feel it first, since automatic approval under $2,000 is what both candidates would end. I’d have every Arizona product listed under the category it belongs to, with its documentation ready, before a new review process starts.

Iowa’s changes come through administration.

Iowa’s Students First Education Savings Account is paid from a standing, unlimited appropriation, so no budget vote sets its size. The award is $8,148 for 2026-27, and the program covers students enrolled in accredited nonpublic schools, so the buyer in Iowa is a private school family.

Rob Sand (D) won the governor’s race. He said in the October 27 debate that "private schools that are taking public money should have to take whichever students" apply, and his plan calls for annual audits and a review of the program’s contract with Odyssey. Changing eligibility or the appropriation takes a bill, and Republicans kept both chambers, according to the Des Moines Register.

An audit and a contract review are steps an administration can start on its own. I expect Iowa’s 2027 changes to show up in what gets reviewed, how payments are made, and possibly on what platform, well before they show up in eligibility or the award. I’d expect more questions about receipts and listings from Iowa in 2027, and I’d have the answers ready.

Georgia’s next appropriation runs through a new governor.

The Georgia Promise Scholarship is an annual appropriation, $100 million for the fiscal year that began July 1, 2026, with awards up to $6,500. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) won the governor’s race and has made no public statement on the program. Georgia’s governor can veto a single line of an appropriations bill and sign the rest.

Republicans kept the Senate, according to the AJC. AP has not called the House, where Fox 5 Atlanta counts 93 Democrats and 86 Republicans, with one seat going to a December 1 runoff. Lydia Powell (D), the new state school superintendent, said during the campaign that "we’re putting $100 million in vouchers," though the Promise Scholarship is run by the Georgia Education Savings Authority rather than her department.

I expect the Promise line to come out of a negotiation between a Democratic governor and a Republican Senate, close to the current $100 million. Eligibility is narrow, tied to household income and to the attendance zones of the lowest performing schools, so I’d treat Georgia as a targeted market in 2027 rather than one to build volume in.

Where change is slower.

North Carolina’s House changed hands, and the Senate turns on one close district. ESA+ is funded by amounts written into statute, $77.6 million for 2027-28 and $78.6 million for 2028-29, with awards of $9,000 and $17,000. I expect it to hold at those amounts, because changing them now takes agreement among Governor Josh Stein (D), a Democratic House, and whichever party controls the Senate.

New Hampshire re-elected Kelly Ayotte (R), who signed the 2025 law that removed the income test from the Education Freedom Account. WMUR reports Democrats won both chambers, though AP has not called either. Restoring an income test would take her signature or a two-thirds vote, so I expect eligibility to hold through 2027.

Ohio’s EdChoice pays private school tuition, so it matters more to schools than to most providers. Amy Acton (D) won the governor’s race and said she would get "my hands around the out-of-control, not-transparent voucher situation." On October 15 an appeals court held the program unconstitutional "as presently structured, funded, and challenged" and stayed its ruling for an appeal. Payments continue while the stay holds. Keith Faber (R) conceded the attorney general’s race to John Kulewicz (D), though AP has not called it, and Faber said during the campaign that Kulewicz "hasn’t committed" to appealing.

Kansas and Nevada run scholarship tax credits that pay private school tuition. Kansas caps its credit at $10 million a year, and a 2026 bill to raise it to $15 million was vetoed and the veto held. Ty Masterson (R) has said the cap "needs to be expanded," and Cindy Holscher (D) has said, "I oppose diverting taxpayer dollars to private school voucher programs." In Nevada, Aaron Ford (D) succeeds Joe Lombardo (R), who had pledged to raise the Opportunity Scholarship’s funding. Ford has said, "What I do not advocate for and will not support is public money going toward private schools."

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania now have one party in the governor’s office and both chambers. David Crowley (D), Wisconsin’s new governor, said that "trying to do an overnight shutdown of the voucher system doesn’t put our public schools in the best position." Pennsylvania’s two scholarship tax credits are run by its Department of Community and Economic Development, and Josh Shapiro (D) said in his October debate, "It is not an either or." I expect both states to keep current eligibility in 2027, with no expansion.

Where programs are likely to grow.

Tennessee’s Education Freedom Scholarship grew to 35,000 seats for 2026-27, all of them taken, and the Department of Education reported 17,735 applicants on the waitlist when it announced the expansion in May. Marsha Blackburn (R) won the governor’s race saying, "I will fight to expand Education Freedom Scholarships." I expect the 2027 session to raise the cap again, and a waitlist that size to fill new seats as fast as they open.

South Carolina’s Education Scholarship Trust Fund reached its 15,000-student limit for 2026-27, according to the Department of Education, and only the appropriations act can raise it. Alan Wilson (R), the new governor, said in October, "I also strongly support universal school choice," and Ellen Weaver (R), whose department runs the program, was re-elected superintendent. I expect a higher number in the 2027 appropriations act, at an award of $7,634 this year.

Wyoming’s Education Savings Account Program pays $7,000 a year, and its new superintendent, Steve Harshman (R), said during the primary that "we gotta go back and start over," with a focus on "folks who really need it." His department runs the program. The new governor, Eric Barlow (R), sponsored legislation creating accounts for families in hardship, so I expect a narrower program to be on the table in 2027 while litigation over it continues. In Alabama, Tommy Tuberville (R) said participating schools "should be accredited." That bears on schools, and the $2,000 home education award is fixed in statute.

What the results leave open for program money.

Can a new governor take a state out of the federal credit for 2027?

Only where the 2027 election is not yet complete. Treasury does not read the statute as allowing a completed election to be revoked, and its preamble says a state can, in effect, opt out by not filing its list by February 15. Where state law requires participation, as in Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Tennessee, no federal document settles whether a governor can decline.

Does the election change a 2026-27 award?

No. Each 2026-27 award is set by statute, by formula, or by an appropriation already enacted, and the results amend none of them. Changes come through 2027 sessions and budgets, and most take effect with the 2027-28 school year.

Where does a homeschool seller see the most change?

Texas, where the 2027 budget sets the program behind the $2,000 home education award, and Arizona, where purchase approval is likely to tighten for every account. Alabama’s $2,000 home education award is fixed in statute, and Iowa’s program covers students in accredited nonpublic schools, so the election moves neither one for a homeschool buyer.